India
and Population
 India's
2001 census puts the country's population at
1.028 billion. India is estimated to
increase its population by about 18 million
every year - the size of Australia. India's
population will grow to 1.53 billion by
2050. This will make India the most
populated nation by then, overtaking China
with its projected population of 1.39
billion by 2050.
What
is meant by population stabilisation?
Population
stabilisation is a stage when the size of
the population remains unchanged. It is also
called the stage of zero population growth.
Global population is said to be stabilizing
when births equal deaths. However, in the
case of individual countries, movement of
people into and outside the country is also
taken into account. Country level population
stabilisation occurs when births plus
in-migration equals deaths plus
out-migration.
For
population stabilisation, a person must die
for every one who is born. But when there
are more young couples starting families
than older people dying, the population
continues to grow. This is called population
momentum.
Thus, there
is often a gap of a few decades between
achieving replacement level fertility (two
children per couple) and population
stabilisation. India has set itself the goal
of attaining replacement levels of fertility
by 2010 to achieve the larger goal of
population stabilisation by 2045 - a gap of
35 years to account for population momentum
Why
is the population increasing so fast even
when the average number of children per
woman is decreasing?
 India
continues to add about 18 million people per
year because more than 50% of the population
is in the reproductive age group. It is this
large base of young people which imparts
momentum to the growth of population. Also,
the number of people entering the
reproductive age group increases by the year
due to the high birth rate of the previous
years.
Population
momentum can be checked by delaying marriage
and child bearing, and by spacing births.
What
are the factors that influence population
growth?
Natural
increase denotes the difference between the
number of births and deaths. The country has
seen declining death rates but the birth
rates remain high; birth rates are high due
to two factors. The first is unwanted and
unplanned fertility - children who are born
because of lack of poor access to
contraceptive services, also known as the
"unmet need". The birth of three
and above three children accounts for 45% of
the 26 million births that take place each
year.
Second is the
desire for larger families (called
"wanted fertility") because of
socio-cultural reasons, particularly
preference for a male child and high infant
mortality. This accounts for 20% of births.
More
significantly, the momentum brought in by
the young age profile of the population
spurs growth. This phenomenon will continue
to add large numbers to India's population
in the coming decades.
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