Total
Fertility Rate (TFR)
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children expected to be born per woman during her entire span of reproductive period. In India the Total Fertility Rate is 2.6. Among the bigger States, Kerala has the lowest TFR of 1.7 and the highest TFR recorded is 3.9 for Bihar. TFR is considered to be a useful indicator for analysing the prospects for population stabilization.
Among 20 bigger states nine states have reached below replacement level of fertility. (Replacement level fertility is the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next.) Five states are within an achievable distance in the near future. Six states have a high total fertility rate of three and above.
However according to projections, at the current rate of decline, it will take many states from 18 to 45 years to achieve a TFR of 2.1. This is particularly true in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. Special measures are vitally necessary to reduce the TFR in these states. States with high TFR (3 or more) account for more than 40% of the population. Education and the provision of reproductive health services and nutrition were substantially responsible for achieving the TFR of 2.1 in Kerala in 1988 and in Tamil Nadu in 1993. These states achieved early progress by making population stabilisation a priority. Maternal and child health has to be promoted as a priority in those states with high level of TFR if we are to stabilise the population.
| Classification of Bigger States based on Total Fertility Rate |
| TFR<2.1 |
TFR 2.1 to 3.0 |
TFR>3 |
| Kerala |
1.7 |
Jammu & Kashmir |
2.2 |
Chhattisgarh |
3.0 |
| Tamil Nadu |
1.7 |
Orissa |
2.4 |
Jharkhand |
3.2 |
| Andhra Pradesh |
1.8 |
Gujarat |
2.5 |
Madhya Pradesh |
3.3 |
| Himachal Pradesh |
1.9 |
Haryana |
2.5 |
Rajasthan |
3.3 |
| Punjab |
1.9 |
Assam |
2.6 |
Uttar Pradesh |
3.8 |
| West Bengal |
1.9 |
|
|
Bihar |
3.9 |
| Delhi |
2.0 |
|
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|
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| Karnataka |
2.0 |
|
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| Maharashtra |
2.0 |
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| Source: Sample Registration System (2008) |
Birth
Order Three and Above:
The
percentage of births of order three and
above is a direct measure of fertility. The
larger the percentages of birth of order
three and above indicates weak impact of the
family welfare programme. In other words,
lower the percentage of births of order
three and above the more likely that the
district would be developed. The majority of
the bottom 100 districts according to this
ranking belong to Arunachal Pradesh, Bihar,
Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Meghalaya,
Mizoram, Nagaland, Rajasthan, and Uttar
Pradesh (Table:
Ranking and Mapping of Districts - Based on
Socio - economic and Demographic Indicators,
NCP, MOHFW)
|
)
)